skimming the headlines

A good rule whether you are reading the news from here to the New York Times is, the market has already discounted it. Anything in the newspapers is history, ancient history. If it is printed on glossy paper however, that means it is published in amber.

still could pay interest on the debt

If no agreement reached default does not mean they could not service the debt if they wanted to, which is the bottom line most vitally important event. Of course there is always a time limit on everything. Eventually the interest on the debt climbs so high everything we could borrow would go to payment of the debt. That then is ground zero. Someday the money is going to have to be to be devalued, that is a mathematically done deal at this point. It all depends now on perception to predict the actual blow out point. The country is sinking under its own weight. All roads led to Rome, just as they now they lead to the US. When it all happens the pot will already been boiling for some time.

Is the trend underway?

Not easy to predict a change in the trend too far ahead of the curve, so I am going too sit tight a bit longer. Shutdowns I do not think have made any significant impact before. Danny's rule was not too pick tops or bottoms no matter how attractive it was to be early, where admittedly the big money typically is made. 

no one position dominates markets



Neither fear nor greed can dominate markets very long. Reason is the markets will not tolerate it. If anyone or anything corners the market they rewrite the rules to get trading going again. Markets must function, there can be no one or anything win to stop the game. The consummate trader, Jesse Livermore's fatal flaw was wanting to corner coffee. He did and they wrote him out. The Hunts did silver and they did the same to the Hunts. What drives markets up? Governments printing money. Why do prices fluctuate? No one can agree what anything is worth. What drives prices down? Up prices. Bluffing is large part of the markets not much different than Texas Holdem. For instance, talking heads only tell you what they are buying after they buy it, automatically making them sellers, no longer buyers.

Markets, international markets, are stronger than governments, stronger than the Fed. How many times a governments made moves to control their currency and succeeded... for two weeks maybe. Meanwhile, counter to this, the illusion is that a new trend started never stops. If something even happens once, it only seems it happens more often or is likely to happen again, That's the way we remember things.

politics weights heavy on prices

Imagine where we would all be if it were not the heavy, costly prescence of politics on prices. But we have to take things as they are, all of which makes speculation pick up the slack. It does not look as if there will be a compromise. Whatever anybody can do about it to protect their risk capital seems impossible to say. Gold is in the tank and heading lower. So the only course appears to be just sitting tight with growth positions. However, with Panera rolling over one has to keep a close eye on the other high multiple stocks.